A conflict more than 6,000 kilometers away is reshaping dinner tables in Sokoto, Lagos and Kano. The escalation between Iran, Israel and the United States has sent shockwaves through global energy and fertilizer markets, and Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, is feeling the heat in the form of higher fuel costs, pricier food, and a fresh surge in malnutrition.
What began as a geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has quickly become a cost-of-living crisis at home, exposing how deeply Nigeria’s food system is tied to global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fuel Shock That Reached The Farm
The war, which began on February 28, 2026, led to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes. At one point, commercial traffic through the strait dropped from 135 vessels a day to just 4.
For Nigeria, that translated directly to the pump. Fuel prices jumped from about 800 naira per liter in February to 1,400 naira in April. Other reports put the surge even higher, from N839 to N1,232 per liter within three weeks of the conflict, and from N830 to about N1,325 by late March. Diesel, the lifeline for manufacturers and cold-chain operators, rose by about 70 percent to around N1,550 per liter.
Because Nigeria imports a large share of refined products and depends on road transport to move food from farms to cities, those increases cascaded immediately. Transport fares tripled along some corridors. In Lagos, a technician now sleeps in his office to avoid daily commuting costs, while a teacher walks 35 minutes to work because his daily fare rose from N400 to N700.
Food Prices Climb As Supply Chains Strain
Higher energy costs have pushed food prices up across the board. A large basket of tomatoes at Mile 12 market in Lagos now sells for as much as N60,000, up from N41,000 weeks earlier. A bag of fresh pepper jumped from N46,000 to N80,000. A portion of red pepper that sold for N200 a few months ago now goes for N500.
For manufacturers, the pain is also rising. Nigeria’s biggest listed food producers saw revenue growth slow in Q1 2026, and analysts warn that energy costs threaten efficiency gains. One analyst noted, “I expect to see the impact of the war on the cost of sales, which is expected to require businesses to raise prices to keep the bottom line competitive”.
The World Bank estimates fuel prices in Nigeria have risen by more than 50 percent following global crude shocks. Experts say Africa’s food prices went up by an average of 15 percent due to the disruptions.
Fertilizer, Farms, and a Looming Harvest Problem
Beyond transport, the war is hitting the farm. About 15 percent of global fertilizer and closer to 20-30 percent of urea-based fertilizers depend on the Middle East region. With exports of urea from the Persian Gulf dropping to near zero, global prices have spiked.
In Nigeria, the Managing Director of Rusbi Agricultural Processing Company said the primary driver of expected NPK price hikes this season is a sharp 40 percent increase in the cost of locally sourced urea, attributed to the global surge in natural gas prices caused by the conflict. Rising diesel costs are also escalating logistics expenses.
Agricultural experts warn that if farmers cannot access affordable fertilizer during the planting season, food production could fall, reversing recent gains in decelerating food inflation. There are also fears of adulterated fertilizers flooding the market as dealers try to cut costs, threatening yields and food security.
Children Paying The Price
The human cost is already visible. In Sokoto, health workers report more children returning to clinics after relapsing into malnutrition. At one hospital, records show nearly 40 children previously treated for malnutrition since February are currently under treatment again.
UNICEF has warned that if the Middle East conflict continues, up to 23.4 million additional children could fall into monetary poverty by year end, with at least 80 percent in Africa and Asia. “Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.
A World Bank technical report also stated that 139 million Nigerians are now poor or vulnerable to poverty. The Food and Agriculture Organisation notes that about 27.2 million Nigerians are currently facing hunger, a figure that could rise to 34.7 million between June and August 2026 without interventions.
A Windfall That Hasn’t Reached The Table
Ironically, Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy stands to gain from higher crude prices. A policy brief by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group estimates possible fiscal windfalls ranging from N2.3 trillion in a short crisis to N30.2 trillion if high prices persist.
But for households, that windfall feels distant. Analysts describe the situation as “double jeopardy”: first the 2023 fuel subsidy removal pushed prices up, and now global tensions are pushing them up again. With minimum wage still at N70,000 per month and about three out of five Nigerians earning below N100,000 or nothing at all in 2025, families are being forced to make hard choices, cutting school attendance, walking long distances, or skipping meals.
The Federal Government is targeting 25 million tonnes of grain output, up from 11 million tonnes, through subsidized fertilizers and single-digit financing. Experts are also calling for urgent intervention to subsidize genuine fertilizers and strengthen regulation.
Analysts warn that Nigeria’s exposure is concentrated in refined petroleum, wheat imports, and urea fertilizer supply. A prolonged disruption could create second-round effects where higher food and energy prices spill into core inflation, eroding real household incomes further.
For now, the distant rumble of conflict in the Middle East is being felt most personally in Nigeria, at petrol stations, in crowded buses, and across market stalls where the cost of food climbs by the week. Until global shipping normalizes and domestic buffers are strengthened, the war’s most visible casualty in Nigeria may not be oil, but the next meal.
