Petrol prices in Nigeria could fall to as low as N900 per liter if a newly brokered peace agreement between the United States and Iran holds and pushes global crude oil prices sharply downward, sources familiar with the negotiations have confirmed.
The development is being watched closely in Abuja and across Nigerian fuel markets, where pump prices have remained stubbornly high since the removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023.
Global crude oil benchmarks dropped significantly after news broke of the US-Iran agreement, with Brent crude sliding toward $60 per barrel. Analysts say a sustained fall to that level would change the math for Nigerian fuel importers and the Dangote Refinery, which pegs its local pricing to crude costs.
A senior official at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the agency was already modeling new pricing scenarios. “If crude sustains these levels for the next three to four weeks, the arithmetic changes for everyone in the downstream sector,” the official said.
Nigeria currently imports a significant portion of its petrol needs despite the Dangote Refinery beginning domestic supply operations. The Lekki-based facility confirmed on Monday it was reviewing its ex-depot price structure in light of the crude price movement.
Dangote Refinery spokesperson Anthony Chiejina did not give a specific new pump price figure but told journalists that “the refinery’s pricing will reflect market realities as they evolve.” He said a formal announcement would follow internal review within days.
At filling stations in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, motorists are already reacting to the news. Emeka Okafor, a commercial driver in Oshodi, Lagos, said he heard the price could drop. “If na true, that one will save us small,” he told this reporter. “Everything that we buy is too high because of fuel.”
The IPMAN, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said its members were waiting for an official price signal from regulators before adjusting pump prices. IPMAN spokesman Chinedu Ukadike said prices could not be revised downward unilaterally. “We need clarity from NNPCL and the NMDPRA first. Marketers cannot just wake up and slash prices,” Ukadike said.
NNPC Limited had not issued a formal statement as of press time. The national oil company, which remains a dominant importer, controls a large share of petrol supply through its trading arm and typically anchors market pricing.
The US-Iran peace agreement, reached in talks held in Muscat, Oman, involves a phased lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports in exchange for verified limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran currently produces roughly 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, and a full return to global markets would add significant volume to an already softening supply picture.
OPEC members are scheduled to meet before the end of the month to assess the impact of the deal on their own production quotas. Nigeria, as an OPEC member, stands to earn less per barrel from its own crude exports if prices fall, creating a trade-off between cheaper fuel imports and reduced oil revenue for the federal government.
Finance Minister Wale Edun had no public comment on Monday. His spokesman said the ministry was monitoring oil price developments and would brief the Federal Executive Council at the next scheduled meeting.
For ordinary Nigerians still absorbing the economic pressure of recent years, the possibility of petrol prices in Nigeria dropping below N1,000 per liter is welcome news. But they have heard similar promises before. The next few weeks will determine whether the US-Iran deal translates into real relief at the pump.
