The Economist titled its analysis “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway,” pointing to what the magazine called Nigeria’s “complicated electoral dynamics” as the central reason the incumbent retains a plausible path to victory. That framing matters because it tells Nigerians something a campaign rally cannot: that elections are not always decided by who is most popular.
The magazine identified political cynicism, a divided opposition, religious identity, incumbency advantages, and historically low voter turnout in insecurity-hit areas as factors shaping the contest.
It said the administration’s reforms have attracted positive attention from investors but have yet to produce corresponding improvements in living standards for many Nigerians.
The Economist said Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi’s failure to form a joint ticket could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind a single candidate, quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”
The publication described Nigeria’s security crisis as severe, noting that bandits and insurgents continue to abduct and kill citizens in several parts of the country, with people kidnapped and killed on a near-daily basis.
It cited public sentiment in Maiduguri, where some residents claimed they were unfamiliar with other presidential contenders apart from President Tinubu.
Separately, the Political Intelligence Group of Politico.ng projected that if an election were conducted in early October across the 36 states and the FCT, the APC would have an edge in 19 states, the NDC in 10, and the ADC in eight.
The APC, which was projected to win 20 states in September, dropped to 19 in October after losing Rivers State in the projection but gaining Adamawa State.
PIG, an analytical unit led by Lai Omotola of Politico.ng, said the October projection reflected major political events and realignments recorded across the country in September, as well as increasing mobilization by political parties ahead of the 2027 poll.
Omotola said the monthly electoral map was designed to indicate areas where political parties were gaining or losing ground and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election result, stressing it represents what the outcome could look like if the election were held during the month under review.
APC presidential campaign spokesperson Mallam Alwan Hassan defended the administration’s economic reforms, arguing that they have strengthened Nigeria’s fiscal position and laid the foundation for long-term economic stability, speaking at a press conference on September 22.
Hassan said monthly FAAC allocations to the federal, state, and local governments have more than tripled compared with the years before 2023.
According to him, there are now signs of improvement, including stronger economic growth, higher government revenues, greater transparency in the foreign-exchange market, and an improved external position.
“The reforms President Tinubu has undertaken were unavoidable,” Hassan said, adding that anyone promising a return to unlimited subsidies, multiple exchange rates, and reckless borrowing is either being dishonest or does not understand how an economy is managed.
The ADC pushed back, arguing that the cost-of-living crisis confronting Nigerians, rather than religion or ethnicity, would play the decisive role in how voters cast their ballots, while adding that it “agreed with the story that President Tinubu is universally disliked, but we disagree that he could win the election.”
The Nigerian Democratic Congress equally faulted The Economist’s conclusion that Tinubu could retain power despite his significant unpopularity.
The party questioned the basis of the publication’s assessment, arguing there was no pathway to the president’s re-election without rigging the process.
North Central APC leaders launched the Grassroots Mobilization Movement for Tinubu/Shettima 2027 at the SGF’s office in Abuja on Friday, October 2.
The plan includes a grand rally in Lafia on October 10, a medical outreach in the three senatorial zones of Benue State, and grassroots advocacy tours with town hall meetings across 19 senatorial districts in the six states and the FCT.
The North Central Grassroots Mobilization Network said the program was intended to ensure that the North Central delivers the highest number of votes from the northern part of Nigeria in the January 2027 presidential election. Both assessments, The Economist’s projection and the PIG electoral map, carry a consistent caveat: what polls and forecasters see today is not necessarily what Nigerians will decide at the ballot box when the 2027 election arrives.
